Digital downloads will be Blu-ray's downfall
By Erica Ogg, CNET News.comFeb 26, 2008
Blu-ray won't enjoy the same decade-long dominance that DVD did after it succeeded VHS. But that's not because there will be other challenger physical disc formats. Rather, instead of buying discs, people will begin getting their entertainment in the form of digital downloads in larger volumes.
The studios backing Blu-ray already know this. At an HDTV confab last fall, Warner Bros.' vice president of High-Definition Media Development likened HD packaged media to a set of training wheels for digital downloads.
"We can use HD discs to train consumers to move into digital, but it's a transition," said Warner Bros.' Dan Silverberg. "Downloaded content will come, but the consumer will get quicker tutorial into video-on-demand, etc., by owning a Blu-ray player or HD-DVD."
It'll happen sooner than they think. With a growing number of alternatives to packaged media, combined with the relatively high prices of Blu-ray players and discs vs. inexpensive, so-called upconverting DVD players, Blu-ray will likely be the last major disc format you'll ever buy.
Netflix, a purveyor of rental discs, obviously saw the writing on the wall, instituting its Watch It Now feature last year. Amazon.com, which sells plenty of packaged media, has its own Unbox video download service.
The likely reason? Overall consumer spending on DVDs and high-definition discs (HD-DVD and Blu-ray), both purchase and rental, has been steadily decreasing since its peak at US$24.5 billion in 2004. According to the Digital Entertainment Group, a trade group that represents all disc makers, spending last year amounted to US$23.7 billion.
To the chagrin of disc patent holders, discs are not the only way to consumer high-definition media now. There are so many other ways to get content: Settop boxes are getting far more sophisticated and will continue to do so in the next few years. Vudu, for instance, stepped up the video-on-demand (VOD) option by adding more content than any of its predecessors, including the option for HD purchases and rentals. Apple recently upgraded Apple TV to include rentals--standard definition and HD--and a way to bypass the need for a PC to watch films on a living room TV.
Even Microsoft's Xbox 360 game console has a download service for movies.
TiVo and other DVR makers that support cable giants like US Comcast have traditional VOD options, and hard drive space will continue to expand. Netflix has its rentals available to watch right from its Web site, and watching TV shows online and for free at sites like ComedyCentral.com, Hulu.com, Joost, means you don't have to buy whole seasons of TV shows on physical discs anymore. If watching TV on a PC isn't your thing, technologies like Sony's Bravia Internet Link and Sling Media's SlingProjector bring Web video directly to the TV.
