Five computing predictions for 2012

by Vincent Chang | 4 January 2012 6:48pm SGT

At the beginning of every year, we risk getting egg on our faces by predicting the trends for the year. (Of course, we will be spared any embarrassment if the apocalypse does happen in 2012.) Since true innovation or technological disruption occurs rarely and is even harder to predict, you can expect the usual dose of incremental progress. What we can do then, is to extrapolate from the trends of previous years.

More Ultrabooks

Our first prediction is as good as a slam dunk--there will be plenty of Ultrabooks in 2012. Five vendors released their models last year, but we'll see more manufacturers jumping on the bandwagon. The healthy sales of Apple's MacBook Air showed that consumers are looking for ultrathin laptops and Ultrabooks satisfy this need.

Not only would we find more Ultrabooks in the market, the actual definition of these laptops is evolving beyond Intel's original concept. We're likely to see 14- and even 15-inch Ultrabooks (and on the Mac front, perhaps even a 15-inch MacBook Air). And while Ultrabooks have so far eschewed optical drives, Samsung's upcoming Series 5 Ultrabook appears to have this feature.

In short, Ultrabooks are the new thin-and-light laptops, except they are sleeker. With Intel's next-gen CPU architecture--Ivy Bridge--expected to debut in mid-2012, future Ultrabooks will be using this platform and as a result, they are likely to have better performance and even more battery mileage.

SSDs to become mainstream

For the past few years running, pundits have been anticipating that this year would be it, that we'll finally see solid-state drives (SSDs) becoming a mainstream feature in PCs. Unfortunately, they have been wrong each time.

Will 2012 be a turning point for this technology? There's definitely a real possibility this time round. For one, the HDD sector is still feeling the effects of last year's devastating floods in Thailand. This has led to a tight supply and hence a higher price. Meanwhile, the prices of SSDs have been falling gradually. Couple this with the expected boom in Ultrabooks, which are typically equipped with SSDs, and we may just find these drives finally making the breakthrough this year.

Last chance for Android tablets

Last year, we saw many Android Honeycomb tablets appear on the market, but with the possible exception of Samsung's Galaxy Tab, the majority have failed to garner substantial market share. Apple continues to hold the dominant position in this market with the iPad 2. Meanwhile, the lower end part of this market is being taken by Amazon's US$199 Kindle Fire slate, which uses its own custom version of Android.

Even with the prospect of Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich unifying the Android experience for both smartphones and tablets, Android slates are facing long odds of success. Here are the reasons.

At their higher price points, we don't see Apple being displaced from its lofty spot this year--the iPad has become an icon. And we all know that the Kindle Fire and the Nook Tablet appeal to budget-conscious users, at least in the US market. Then, there are the persistent iPad 3 rumors that hint at a more affordable version. This would leave vendors with the option of going against the iPad once again, or competing on price with Amazon (bearing in mind that Amazon may be selling the Fire at a loss). Neither option sounds appealing.

Would manufacturers then continue putting resources into Android? Or would they mitigate their risks by developing Windows 8 tablets, too? Already, there's talk of Acer and Lenovo introducing Windows 8-based slates later this year using Intel's Clover Trail platform. If done right, it could be a viable alternative, especially since Intel is promising even more power-efficient chips in 2013.

These tablets will probably only appear near the end of the year, which means Android slate manufacturers have just one year to make things right before competition gets even more intense.

Greater variety among tablets

Given that the typical tablet design--rectangular with a touchscreen--hasn't helped Android tablet vendors last year, we expect them to up the ante with more innovative designs. Based on iPad 3 rumors, Apple seems to be heading toward even higher pixel densities and displays with higher resolutions.

Its market clout also means that if this indeed happens, Apple is likely to secure most of the limited supply of such panels, which would make it quite difficult for competitors to go down that same route. This may lead to more varied designs, from hybrid ones that we have seen, such as the Asus Transformer Prime with its detachable keyboard or perhaps even more form factors than the standard 7- and 10-inch versions in the market.

Samsung seems to have a head start here with its variety of screen sizes, from the Galaxy Note (is it really an extra large smartphone or just a tablet that happens to make phone calls) to its range of different-sized Galaxy Tab slates.

3D technology to stay niche

Even on the TV front, 3D technology hasn't really taken off despite the relentless efforts of TV manufacturers. We don't expect things to change this year--3D is unlikely to make any significant gains in the desktop and notebook segments. Although Nvidia updated its 3D Vision glasses last year to be more comfortable and allow for wider viewing angles, the fact that most 3D implementations continue to require glasses is likely to hinder its adoption.

Due to the fact that compatible graphics cards automatically convert games into 3D format, there are plenty of games that can be viewed in 3D. However, there isn't any compelling content which requires the use of 3D technology. The 3D effect is extra eye-candy and has no impact on gameplay. And 3D doesn't come cheap, from a more expensive 120Hz monitor to the 3D glasses themselves. 3D-capable gaming notebooks are also premium models that cost more.

About the author

After years of reviewing the innards of PCs in his previous job, Senior Writer Vincent Chang has moved on to covering notebooks and PC systems at CNET Asia. A big reader of sci-fi and fantasy, he has accepted the inevitable and gone down the e-book route, though he's still resisting the siren call of the Kindle.

Vincent Chang, Senior writer

Latest comments

Beware! The new Ultrabooks have GREAT DANGER! See: The Decapitator: The Thinnest Ultrabook Ever! http://youtu.be/g7lfWg45m5A Warning! Video contains violent animated content!

Posted by StevenM

Jan 6, 2012 Reply

Thanks for the informative Article! Very useful as a starting point to identify tech trends moving forward in 2012! For us, We are looking forward to more Major Brands adopting Android 4 Ice Cream Sandwich, and incorporating this cutting edge platform into a wider range of mobile and tablets. Technology is definitely the Future, and Android has all the potential to compete with Apple on a Long Battle! =) Cheers, Pierre Sim http://www.AndroidIceCreamSandwich.me

Posted by PierreS